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Hyperliquid Challenges Kalshi and Polymarket for a Multi-Billion-Dollar Prediction Market
Hyperliquid, one of the most active decentralised exchanges, may add prediction markets to its platform. This move would put it in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.
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The proposal, known as HIP-4, would let users trade outcome contracts on real-world events alongside Hyperliquid’s existing leveraged perpetual futures. Early versions are already running on testnet, while a mainnet rollout has not yet been scheduled.
Yes for the HIP-4.
— Hyperliquid News (@HyperliquidNews) April 29, 2026
Why Integration Matters Here
What makes Hyperliquid a credible entrant is not volume alone — it is the architecture. The platform runs on its own L1 blockchain and HyperCore engine, enabling a unified trading environment. A single account can hold event bets, Bitcoin positions, and commodity exposure against the same collateral pool.
For sophisticated traders, that means cross-margining across market types — a feature absent from platforms built around prediction markets as a standalone product.
"Sophisticated traders will be able to take advantage of portfolio margin and figure out ways to generate alpha from these two different market types," said Sunny Shi, an investor at crypto fund Syncracy Capital.
Hyperliquid also does not need to build an audience for prediction markets. It is distributing the product to an existing and active base of traders.
Movement in Both Directions
Hyperliquid's entry coincides with prediction market platforms pushing the other way. Kalshi has announced a perpetual futures product called Timeless. Polymarket is launching 10x leveraged contracts on Bitcoin, Nvidia, and gold. Each platform is approaching the convergence from a different position.
Kalshi is operating as a CFTC-regulated exchange and is building toward regulatory legitimacy in the U.S. market. Polymarket is leaning on its crypto-native interface and global reach. Hyperliquid is treating prediction market contracts as one more instrument type on a high-throughput derivatives engine.
What This Means for the Industry
The competition is shifting from product creativity to infrastructure. Hyperliquid’s model depends on factors it cannot fully control, including oracle reliability, resolution disputes, and retail engagement with event contracts.
Some market participants are skeptical that Hyperliquid will compete directly with Kalshi or Polymarket for retail volume. Its interface and distribution model are geared more toward experienced traders, suggesting that demand may come primarily from users looking to hedge or trade event contracts alongside existing derivatives positions.
Im following @HyperliquidX hip4 prediction markets but imo they will not compete with @Polymarket or @Kalshi for retail volume The hl interface is just miles away from being retail friendly and even with builder codes implementing the markets i see the existing distribution… pic.twitter.com/x9wFPVyq2Z
— James Ross (@jamesrosst) April 28, 2026
Those are unresolved questions, and the $1 trillion annual volume figure cited by proponents for 2030 reflects projections, not a current trajectory.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.* This article was originally published here
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US soldier charged with making prediction-market bets on Maduro’s seizure
Army member was involved in planning Venezuela operation and allegedly made $400,000 on trades about mission
* This article was originally published here
* This article was originally published here
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SEC Lets Self‑Hosted Crypto Wallets Stay Outside Broker Regime, for Now
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has said that software allowing users to trade crypto securities through their own wallets will not be regulated as a broker.
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The staff view, published on Monday, clarified that websites or software providing access to self-hosted wallets do not need to register as broker-dealers if they act only as interfaces for transactions.
NEW 🚨: As part of Project Crypto, the Division of Trading and Markets issued a staff statement providing its views on broker-dealer registration requirements in connection with certain interfaces used to prepare transactions in crypto asset securities.https://t.co/8jCwFOJZcw pic.twitter.com/gmp7jbBhgV
— U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (@SECGov) April 13, 2026
SEC Clarifies Treatment of Wallet Interfaces
According to the SEC, the guidance aims to help developers operate without breaching securities laws while the agency continues to define permanent rules for the crypto industry. Developers must, however, ensure their tools stay neutral and avoid direct involvement in trading or asset handling.
The staff outlined boundaries to remain outside regulation, stating that the software must not solicit investors, provide investment recommendations, handle assets, take orders, or execute trades. If these functions are included, the interface may fall under existing broker regulations.
Keep reading: SEC and CFTC Finally Align on Crypto: “Most Assets Aren’t Securities”
“The staff is providing its views as an interim step while the commission continues to consider various regulatory issues relating to crypto asset securities activities and the feedback it has received,” the statement said.
Temporary Guidance Amid Ongoing Policy Work
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the SEC has been moving toward a more permissive stance on crypto activities. Chairman Paul Atkins has previously said the agency is working on a broader rule proposal to define how securities laws apply to digital assets.
The latest statement adds to a series of nonbinding staff interpretations meant to guide the industry until formal rules are introduced or until Congress passes legislation such as the proposed “Clarity Act.”
Recently, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation confirming that most crypto assets are not securities, aligning their approaches by defining when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. This created a clearer taxonomy for assets like commodities, collectibles, utility tokens, stablecoins, and securities. It also reduced regulation-by-enforcement by giving firms a more predictable rulebook on when and how federal securities and commodities laws apply.
For brokers, that clarity shifted the hard work in-house: firms now have to classify tokens up front, monitor how they’re marketed and used over time, and be ready to defend those judgments if the SEC later questions why an asset wasn’t treated as a security.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.* This article was originally published here
